Two games leaves two teams

Although my rugby coverage has been remiss thus far in the 2008 Six Nations, I thought I would use the lull between game weekends two and three to analyse some of the goings on. After the belligerent renaissance orchestrated by England in the World Cup, their collective resilience appears to have dissipated, while a youthful French team and the resurgent Welsh have claimed the early plaudits. So how are things going to play out?

Well, it already appears that it's between two teams, with a second Grand Slam in four years in the offing for Warren Gatland's Wales, and a possible third successive title on the table for Marc Lièvremont's beguiling Bleus.

Although the Welsh must surely consider themselves lucky to have pulled off their sacking of Twickenham despite only turning up for the last twenty minutes, their enterprise and brio during that late period of the Championship's second game was enough to justify them the points. Quite how England's wheels fell off so spectacularly, Brian Ashton will probably never know; but if it keeps occurring, as it did against the Italians in Rome, then his time free for pondering will rapidly increase. The unemployed-sitting-on-the-sofa-watching-daytime-TV kind of time, that is.

While the post-World Cup blues have suckered England once again, the new-look French have come haring out of the traps, playing some of the free-flowing rugby that used to be such a quintessential part of their game. In particular a livewire back three of Cédric Heymans, Vincent Clerc and Julien Malzieu/Aurélien Rougerie has contributed to their impressive start - Clerc's five tries already put him only three behind an 80-year-old tournament record.

Heymans, a winger whom I greatly admire, but a full-back of dubious pedigree, has broken the shackles of his indecision and is penetrating the line from the No15 position with an insouciant swagger (just watch France's third try here). Clerc, so lethal in denying Ireland at the last in 2007, is as deadly a finisher as anyone currently operating in the world game, and has the quicksilver feet to damage most sides. England will be attempting to bag him early at the weekend.

While some uncertainty remains around the pack, France's ability to hold their own up front whilst running in tries from all parts of the field makes them one of the teams to beat. However, just such a beating may be meted out by the Welsh in a few weeks' time, as Les Bleus will have to attempt to confirm their ascendancy by avoiding defeat in Cardiff in the final round of games.

After last year's abject campaign where Scotland were narrowly forced to accept the wooden spoon, the Welsh dragon has grown a leathery hide; although one which still sparkles with the odd jewel. Shane Williams is still dancing through defences (even when they put him into touch), while James Hook continues to look like a world class five-eighth. The real fillip, however, has been the return of Ryan Jones, whose captaincy and skill behind the scrum have shored up Wales' tight play. It is, of course, pretty handy to have the recently-retired Martyn Williams lurking around again too.

Whilst Ireland might justifiably claim that their late assault on the French means they cannot be discounted in what will probably be another tight Championship, they find themselves in the same uncomfortable position as England. Close analysis does not treat either team well. Scotland have been heartbreakingly unenterprising, while the Italians' brute force and increasing proficiency seem destined to come to naught this year, possibly until Scotland visit the Stadio Flaminio in March.

So, with just two games played, it's looking like Wales versus France, just like it was in 2005. Only this time the French will travel to Cardiff, where they will have to be on their game to avoid getting burned. Once again, the dragon is roaring.

Heeeeeeeeeeeeeeere's Jonny!

It's easy to rhapsodise - so let's. After three years in limbo, Wilko's return was the stuff that dreams are made on. Intelligent in his distribution, gritty in the tackle, almost flawless with the boot, his performance cemented the fledgling optimism of Ashton's reign into a display of solidarity and aggression. Although not called upon to deliver anything like sublime inspiration in a series of backs moves that were more efficient than incisive, the calm application which typified the returning fly-half's contribution instilled confidence in those around him, and enabled the consistent leverage required to open Scotland up.

Even the TMO was overcome by a bout of sentimentality, awarding Wilkinson his try despite his foot landing a good yard in touch before his splayed arm managed to pop the ball down. A gift from the Gods indeed. Scotland did not deserve that, but they earned scant credit besides, only notching two tries through slack English play. Such errors will need to be eradicated before the visit to Croke Park; but with Italy next up for the Jonny treatment an opportunity to hone some of the finer elements of the game should present itself.

Another seventy minutes will be the order of the day for Wilkinson, who was so untested by the Scottish that he almost had to take it upon himself to pick up the obligatory battle scars. Caught across the face by an elbow when throwing himself ball-ward early on, Wilkinson's bloodied fizzog served as a totem for how much has been thrown at him in recent times, and how well he has endured it all. Even a few crunching tackles, including clattering his face into a Scottish forward - a move which elicited criticism of his technique from Brian Moore - could not dim his influence, which shone throughout.

Without being required to stretch the Scots greatly, either with his kicking or passing game, there were still opportunities to exercise the synapses of a mind that lives and breathes rugby. His lightening take and offload, shipping the ball laterally along the line even as his opponent's arms closed around him, created the space for Jason Robinson's first try, and it was also a sharp decision to take an immediate three points from the drop goal after Scotland had briefly rallied. Some of England's passing through the midfield was ponderous, and Wilkinson will need to marshall Tindall and Andy Farrell with greater urgency, particularly against Ireland, but gametime should buy him the opportunity to reach full speed. Already, he now appears integral to the World Cup defence.

Brian Ashton can afford himself a wee dram and a conceited smile after watching such a consummate performance from the man whose unfortunate selection as England captain by Andy Robinson came to haunt the coach who was never able to see his chosen leader make the field of play. Retaining the World Cup will take an act of supreme conjuring; but already Ashton appears to have a touch of the Houdinis about him.

Ashton holds the key

The World Champions head towards France with just the impending Six Nations tournament left in which to find some form. With the seasoned alchemist, Ashton, at the helm, it's with a renewed sense of excitement that I look forward to the action of the coming weeks.

Although that's not to say it's not edged with trepidation. Ashton's reputation for transforming stolid performers into thoroughbreds was borne out last season in his work at Bath, where a team who had struggled to cross the try line began to run in score after score - even if it meant racking up, on the face of it, heavy defeats. Whatever the truth in his 'free-thinker' label, Ashton certainly seems able to imbue his players with an elan that allows them to do things they'd before thought impossible; and even if it's as simple as requesting they play with a smile on their faces, as Mike Tindall joked this week, it's certainly a valuable skill.

Someone who may be in need of a confidence shot before the big kick-off against the Scots on Saturday is Johnny Wilkinson. With all the hype and interest that surrounds him, his England comeback more than three years after kicking the points to win the Web Eillis trophy has the potential to be fraught with nerves, even for as experienced a performer as Wilko. The Scots will surely target him early on, to test his resolve as well as his body; but I'd be as confident as Ashton is in throwing him the chance. Over the Autumn, I pondered the options at 5/8, and was presented with some uninspiring options in the face of Charlie Hodgeson's injury, and continued indifferent form. Andy Goode is not, to my mind, an international fly-half, while Olly Barkley seems more likely to make a case for himself at inside centre. Toby Flood and Sean Geraghty are new, and inexperienced, ingredients in the mix, and although they may flower into players of true international pedigree, there is still no one to stand toe-to-toe with Wilkinson. Another serious injury, in such a pressure cooker as Twickenham will surely be, could break England's golden boy - but the mental strength that helps him slot kick after kick, just as its aided him in coming back from successive injuries, will hopefully see him through. Ashton must believe this, else why pick him?

I'm also willing to back his judgement in giving Andy Farrell his Union international bow, as well as excited by the potential the big guy has. Despite some messy exchanges early in the season, as Saracens and the RFU got a bit silly in working out where to play the League convert, he seems to have been producing some sterling performances in the centre in recent weeks, and praise has flowed, beginning with his performance for the World XV last year., and growing steadily louder. Zinzan Brooke shooting his mouth off isn't worth paying heed to, on this occasion.

Yes, tomorrow could be a real tingler. Ashton's the man with the plan, and the mere fact that the turgid performances of Robinson's era are unlikely to be repeated is something to smile about. And if smiling's all we need, boyish Brian's just the man.